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Simple Model for Clear Sky Solar Radiation

The amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface is mainly determined by:

Earth-Sun geometry: The position of a point on the Earth's surface relative to the Sun which is determined by latitude, the time of year and the time of day.

Atmospheric Conditions:  The level of cloud cover is the principal factor which determines the energy yield on the ground.

This page sets out to describe a simple model of clear sky solar radiation.  The finer points, such as refraction, precise astronomical coordinates and long term changes in Sun-Earth geometry are ignored.  There is the caveat, that the reader should determine if the approach is appropriate for a specific application.

Geometry

The main elements of Earth-Sun geometry are:

The Earth (and other planets) move round the Sun in a elliptical orbit, a journey which takes a year to complete.

Once a day, the Earth rotates around its axis.

The Earth's axis is tilted relative to the orbital plane.

These factors combine to give us day, night, the seasons and a load of 3D geometry.

Energy Reaching a Point on the Earth's Surface

Solar radiation reaches a point on the Earth from three sources which add up to the total which is referred to here as ITotal.

Idirect This is rays from the sun, for many solar applications this is the most significant element.  This is the heat you feel on a sunny day.  Direct radiation can be concentrated using devices such as lenses and concave mirrors.
Idiffuse As the sun's rays pass through the atmosphere, small water droplets and other objects scatter some of the radiation.  This combined with reflected radiation provides the daylight in shady areas.  Diffuse radiation can't be concentrated.
Ireflected Direct radiation can be reflected by the surrounding environment on to a solar device.  How significant this is dependson the geometry and reflective properties of the surrounding objects.

The author's observation of small amorphous silicon PV panels and a prototype solar thermal device in South East England suggests that they function well when the level of direct radiation is high (i.e. on a cloudless sunny day) and less well when the available radiation is composed mainly of diffuse radiation (i.e. a dull, overcast day in winter).  Thus this model is based mainly on direct solar radiation.  Reflected radiation is ignored.

Lambert's Cosine Law

The energy received by a point on the Earth's surface from beam radiation is determined by the angle of the beam to the surface.

I is determined by Lamberts cosine law:

When q is zero (sun overhead), cos(q) is 1, the point receives maximum radiation, when it 90 deg. (sunrise and sunset), cos(q) is zero and the point receives no radiation.

Thus to derive the solar radiation received, we need two parameters, IB and q.

Angle of Incidence

Benford and Bock derived a formula for q which is shown below:

The arguments to this function divide into two groups, those that we specify and those which are a consequence of Earth-Sun geometry.

Those that we define are:

f The latitude of the point we are modelling
s The slope of the surface (zero when the surface is flat on the ground and 90 degrees when it is vertical
b The bearing of the surface (zero for South facing, 180 degrees for North Facing, -90 for West Facing and +90 for East Facing.

The Earth-Sun parameters are:

d Declination which is the angle of the equatorial plane of the Earth relative to its orbital plane around the Sun.  This changes according to where the Earth is in its orbit round the sun.
ω The hour angle which is the stage of the Earth's rotation relative to Solar Noon.  Solar noon is when the meridian on which our point is located faces the Sun, at that time the Sun is at its highest point in the sky.  The Earth rotates around its axis at the rate of 15 degrees each hour, thus the hour angle at 10:00 (solar noon minus two hours) solar time is -30 degrees and at 13:00 (solar noon plus one hour) it is +15 degrees.

Before looking at declination and hour angle, it will be helpful to look at the Earth's orbit around the Sun and its rotation around its own axis.

The Earth's Orbit around the Sun

The Earth's orbit around the Sun is described by Kepler's laws of planetary motion.  The orbit is elliptical with the Sun located at one of the foci.  The diagram shows geometry and events of the orbit:

Whilst for the purposes of this model, the tilt of the Earth's axis relative to the orbital plane can be assumed to be constant, then the angle of incidence of the Sun's rays during a year will be determined by it.  This is illustrated in the diagrams below which show the angle of incidence at solar noon at the solstices and equinoxes:

At the Winter Solstice, d is -23.45 degrees and q at solar noon at latitude 23.45 South (Tropic of Capricorn) is zero.  Thus the southern hemisphere is getting more radiation from the Sun than those of us who live in the North.
At the equinoxes, the Sun is overhead (q equals zero) at the equator and d is zero.  Day and night are of equal duration.
At the Summer Solstice, d is +23.45 degrees and q at solar noon at latitude 23.45 North (Tropic of Cancer) is Zero.  Now it is the northern hemisphere's turn to bask in the sun (clouds permitting).

Declination

A formula which gives an approximation of declination in degrees based on the day number (e.g. 01-Jan=1, 02-Jan=2 etc.) is shown below:

A more convenient form for use in computer models provides the declination in radians:

The declination for the events of the orbit, given by this formula are tabulated below:

Event Date (2009) Day Number Est. Declination True Declination
New Year's Day 01-Jan 1 -23.01  
Perihelion 04-Jan 4 -22.75  
Spring Equinox 20-Mar 79 -0.81 0.00
Summer Solstice 21-Jun 172 23.45 23.45
Aphelion 04-Jul 185 22.89  
Autumn Equinox 23-Sep 265 -0.61 0.00
Winter Solstice 21-Dec 355 -23.45 -23.45

Solar Noon, Sunrise and Sunset

Solar noon is when the point on the earth's surface where the observer is located, aligns with the centres of the Earth and Sun.  At this point, the observer will see that the altitude of the Sun is at its maximum value.

Solar noon provides the reference for the hour angle.  At Solar Noon, the hour angle is zero.

Sunrise and Sunset take place when the altitude of the Sun is zero.  Whilst this simplistic definition suits the needs of the model, it is important to realise that a more sophisticated computation is used for values which appear in newspapers and astronomical tables.  These take into account factors such a refraction due to the Earth's atmosphere and the relationship between solar time and clock time (defined by the Equation of Time).

Hour Angle

Viewed from above the North Pole, the Earth is rotating anti-clockwise around its axis.  The Hour Angle defines the point in the rotation relative to Solar Noon.  The Earth rotates through 360 degrees in 24 hours, thus it is rotating at the rate of 15 degrees per hour.

At 09:00 Solar time, solar noon is three hours away, thus the hour angle is -45 degrees.  By convention, angles in advance of solar noon are negative and those after it positive.

Hour Angle at Sunrise and Sunset

The hour angle at sunrise is obtained from this formula:

As the time difference (and same angular rotation) between sunrise and solar noon is the same as that between solar noon and sunset, we now have all the geometry needed to estimate the angle of incidence on our surface during the day and throughout the year.

The Solar Constant

The solar energy reaching a satellite orbiting the Earth, would receive about 1370 W/m2 from the sun spread over a spectrum ranging from 100 nm to 4,000 nm, with the peak energy being in the visible light band (380 to 770 nm).

Processes such as absorption by water and CO2 reduce the energy received at the Earth's surface by approximately 30% to around 1000W/m2.  The spectrum is also modified with parts of it being attenuated or extinguished. 

Inverse Square Law and Orbital Position

As an object moves away from a point source of radiation, the power it receives is inversely proportional to the square of the distance.  This is the inverse square law which is often expressed in the formula below.

Take an example, at 1 metre the radiation from a light bulb is 2 W/m2, move the sensor until it is 2 metres from the bulb and the radiation is 0.5 W/m2.

The average distance between the earth and the sun 149.6 million km.  The closest it comes to the sun is 147.1 million km at Perihelion (around 04-January) and the furthest it gets is 152.1 million km at Aphelion (around 04 July).  The table below shows how solar radiation changes from the average at these two points.

  Distance Radiation
Space
(W/m2)
Perihelion 147.1 1417
Average 149.6 1370
Aphelion 152.1 1325

A formula which provides an approximate relationship between insolation and day number is shown below:

The argument to the cosine function is in radians.

Air Mass

The term Air Mass is used to describe the relative length of the path of the Sun's rays through the Earth's atmosphere.  When the sun is directly overhead (the altitude is 90 degrees and the zenith angle 0 degrees), it has the shortest path, this is termed air mass one.  As the altitude decreases, the amount of the atmosphere through which the rays must travel increases.  This distance is expressed as a ratio of the minimum distance.

The diagram below shows the formula for Air Mass (AM) using the plane-parallel model which assumes the Earth to be flat.  For zenith angles of less than 80 degrees this may be a reasonable assumption.

The weakness of the plane-parallel model is that AM goes to infinity when the zenith angle is 90 degrees (at sunrise and sunset when the sun is on the horizon).  At these times, the air mass is approximately 40 due to the curvature of the earth as shown below:

An empirical formula  derived by Kasten & Young (1989) allows values of air mass to be derived for zenith angles up to 90 degrees:

The table shows the values of AM derived from both formulas:

Zenith Angle
(degrees)
Plane Parallel K&Y (1989)
0 1.000 1.000
10 1.015 1.015
20 1.064 1.064
30 1.155 1.154
40 1.305 1.304
50 1.556 1.553
60 2.000 1.994
70 2.924 2.903
80 5.759 5.586
90   37.920

The author's experience of observing small PV panels and solar thermal devices in an urban environment in the South East of England is that at high zenith angles/low altitudes is that direct radiation is weak and except in open locations, the device will probably be in shadow from buildings, trees etc..  Thus the plane parallel model offers a trade-off between accuracy and simplicity.

Air Mass and Direct Solar Radiation

On a sunny autumn day, if you take an early morning walk in the park, even though the sun is shining you may need some warm clothes to ward off the chill.  Return at midday and you will be comfortable in a shirt and shorts.

Around seven in the morning the sun is low in the sky (say, altitude around 10 deg. and zenith around 80 deg.) at this time the air mass is approximately 5.0 and the solar radiation on your face will be approximately 500 w/m2.  At solar noon the sun will be higher in the sky (lower than summer, but you will still have to look upwards to see it, the altitude will be around 35 degrees and the zenith 55 degrees), the air mass will have dropped to approximately 1.7 and the sunshine will be a warming 1,000 w/m2.

An empirical formula derived by Meinel provides a relationship between direct solar radiation and air mass:

This allows us to estimate the direct component of solar radiation at different times of the day.  It is assumed that observations are made a sea level.  If you take to the mountains, you decrease the thickness of the atmosphere between you and the sun and more complex relationship is needed.

Diffuse Solar Radiation

The importance of diffuse radiation depends on the response of the device receiving it (It's essential to the human eye on a cloudy day when all the available light is diffuse).  For the applications for which this model is developed, direct radiation is most important, thus a simple solution has been used which that diffuse radiation is 10% of the direct component.  This almost certainly leads to an under-estimate at high zenith angles.

The Model

At this point we have the angle of incidence of the sun's rays to a surface and an estimate of the magnitude of the radiation, thus we can use Lambert's cosine law to estimate the clear sky radiation received by a solar device.  The model is outlined in pseudo code below.

In the model, Q is the energy produce by the device, this function will vary with application, at its simplest it could by Itotal multiplied by an appropriate coefficient of efficiency.

A interval length of 12 minutes is shown below, this is an arbitrary value.

for DAY = 1 to 365

Estimate Declination

Estimate Solar Constant

Estimate Sunrise

for HOUR = Sunrise to Sunset step 12 minutes

Estimate Hour Angle

Estimate Zenith and Incidence

if Zenith < 80 then

Estimate Air Mass

Estimate Idirect

Estimate Idiffuse

Estimate Q for interval

end if

form cumulative Q for day

next

form cumulative Q for year

next

For any region which is subject to significant cloud cover throughout the year, the value of Q will be an overestimate and the model must be evolved to handle cloud cover.

Reality Check

The reality check for the model is the comparison of the output of a horizontally mounted pyranometer located in a similar latitude and weather system.  A pyranometer is a device which measure full spectrum solar radiation.  It is logically equivalent to a horizontally mounted solar device with efficiency of 100%.  The horizontal mounting ensures that it will receive only direct and diffuse radiation and zero reflected radiation.

The pyranometer output is the minimum and maximum values on days where the morning cloud cover was reported as zero.  Whilst cloud cover might be zero in the morning, it is possible/probable that it will change as the day progresses, hence the fluctuations.  The model appears to give a reasonable average maximum value of direct and diffuse radiation on a given day of the year.

Page Modified: 06-January-2010

 

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